 The weekly national economic update reviews the past week's economic and financial events and provides a general economic forecast along with a consensus view of the upcoming economic reports.Primary Format :
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Week of May 19, 2008
Reports last week were mixed. On the positive side, the housing market improved (starts and building permits rose) and the consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI moderated. On the negative side, consumers continued to cut back on spending causing retail sales to edge down 0.2%. The industrial sector suffered with production slowing to its lowest year-over-year pace in more than four years and capacity utilization fell to the lowest level in over two years. While economic reports were mixed ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of May 12th, 2008Last week's reports provide evidence of a stagnant economy. The trade deficit narrowed by $3.5 billion due largely to the largest drop in imports (-$6.1 billion) since at least 1992. Despite the positive implications of a narrowing deficit on real GDP, the large drop in imports suggests tighter budgets of domestic consumers and businesses. News from the financial markets was also negative as all three major stock indices fell and oil prices set yet another all-time high of $126.19 per barre ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of May 5th, 2008The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate target 25 basis points to 2.00% at their April 29/30 meeting as many analysts expected. The Fed cited "subdued" consumer spending, softening labor markets, and stressed financial markets as the basis for the cut. They also noted that inflation, which was elevated due to higher oil and commodity prices, should moderate in the months ahead. Real gross domestic product (GDP) and employment were the most important economic repor ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of April 28th, 2008Few economic reports were released last week, giving investors and the financial markets a quick breather and time to prepare for a horde of reports set to be released this week including real gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Last week's reports were mixed as initial unemployment claims improved, but home sales and durable goods orders dropped. Stock markets ended the week higher and the dollar improved against the euro while oil prices set yet another record high, ending the we ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of April 21, 2008The bevy of reports released last week along with surging financial markets, provided a few positive signals among otherwise negative news. Oil and gas prices continue to strain the consumer's budget as indicated by the jump in sales at gasoline stations which boosted overall retail sales in March. Additionally, both consumer and producer price indices increased at a faster pace than their core counterparts in March because of rising energy costs. The detrimental effect of energy prices may ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of April 14, 2008Reports released last week gave only slight support for an economy in turmoil, but evidence could be found elsewhere. General Electric (GE), often considered a bellwether for the overall economy, was unexpectedly forced to cut its earnings forecast last Friday citing recent market turmoil and the Bear Stearns situation as reasons for the cut. When news of this reached investors, the price of GE stock plummeted as much as 13%, wiping out $46 billion in market value. Additionally, the March ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of April 7th, 2008The latest reports add more evidence that a recession started in January. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 80,000 in March for the third straight decline and initial unemployment claims jumped 38,000 for the week of March 29 to a year and a half high. News was not much better for the nation's goods producers as both construction spending and factory orders fell in February. The one positive report released last week showed that the ISM index increased 0.3 points to 48.6, though still below 50 whic ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of March 31, 2008The reports released last week provide further evidence that the economy is slowing and may likely dip into recession if one is not already underway. Consumer confidence fell 11.9 points in March with the 'present situation' component falling to a four-year low and the 'expectations' component dropping to a level not experienced since the Nixon administration. Consumer spending, which makes up almost two-thirds of real gross domestic product, showed no real growth in February and slowed to ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of March 17, 2008Although the latest economic reports continue to fuel recession worries, additional signs that the sub-prime mortgage debacle is far from over drove stock prices down and recession worries up. The Federal Reserve's announcement on Tuesday that it would lend Treasuries in exchange for debt that includes mortgage-backed securities drove the biggest rally the stock market has seen in five years. The next day, however, investors' worries that the Fed plan would not work pushed stock prices bac ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
March 10, 2008The latest batch of reports produced more signs that the economy might be slipping into recession. Nonfarm payroll employment fell by a larger-than-expected 63,000 in February for the second straight monthly decline. Factory orders fell in January and the ISM Index is pointing to another drop in the manufacturing sector in February. The ISM nonmanufacturing index was not as low as in January, but remained below 50 in February—an indication of contraction in the services sector. The Federa ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
March 3, 2008The latest economic news caused an increased number of investors to believe the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate target by 75 basis points (bps) when they meet in mid-March. New and existing homes sales fell in January and the inventory of homes on the market continued to rise. Real consumer spending in January stalled even though income continued to grow at a moderate year-over-year pace. Consumer confidence for February plunged to a level below the 2001 recession; and du ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
February 22, 2008Economic news tilted toward the negative side last week. Housing starts inched up but the more forward-looking building permits fell 3% in January. Weekly initial unemployment claims declined for the week of February 16 but the four-week moving average jumped to 361,000—the highest level since Hurricane Katrina in October 2005. The Conference Board's leading index fell for the fourth straight week; and with its six-month growth rate dropping by more than 2%, this index is now warning of r ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
February 18, 2008Most reports released last week were better than expected but a deeper look shows some weakness. Retail sales were expected to remain flat but rose 0.3% in January, in part, because of higher gasoline prices. Industrial production inched up 0.1% because of a strong 2.2% gain in output at utilities in January. In contrast, manufacturing output was unchanged and mining dropped off. Initial unemployment claims fell for the third straight week in a sign that labor markets might be improving, a ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of February 4, 2008Last week's reports were predominantly negative. Nonfarm employment contracted by 17,000 in January and the length of the workweek slipped lower. The unemployment rate, however, inched down to 4.7% in January from 5.0% in December. After several weeks of surprisingly lower initial unemployment claims, a 69,000 jump for the week of January 26 puts the level of claims more in line with a contracting economy. Although fourth quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a much lower-th ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of January 21, 2008Stock market indices continued to fall last week after worse-than-expected retail sales and housing reports. Retail sales fell 0.4% in December and housing starts plunged 14.2% in December to its lowest point in 17 years. Permits dropped to a 15-year low. Industrial production held steady but is decelerating on an annualized basis. The Conference Board's leading index is not yet sounding the recession warning but the declines in the components that make up the index are becoming more broad- ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of January 14, 2007Economic reports were mixed again last week while the major stock market indices fell for the third straight week and the S&P 500 recorded its weakest start to a year since 1982, which was a recession year. The international trade deficit widened largely because higher oil prices drove imports much higher. On the positive side, exports continued to rise to new record levels. Initial unemployment claims provided good news with a 15,000 drop in claims for the first week of January. On the i ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of December 24, 2007Someone forgot to tell the consumers that they are not supposed to spend during a recession! The 1.1% jump in consumer spending in November (a 2-year high) provides some evidence that the economy is not slipping into recession. Of course, the housing sector is a different story. Starts fell 3.7% in November but remain slightly above the September low. Permits, which generally lead starts, fell 1.5% to a new 14-year low. Recession is coming soon according to the Conference Board's leading i ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of December 17, 2007The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points last week to 4.25%. Unimpressed investors sold off stocks and drove all three major indexes down last week with concerns that the Federal Reserve is not doing enough to keep the economy out of recession. Many analysts and the media are stoking the recession fears despite the lack of evidence outside of the housing sector. Retail sales grew at twice the pace expected by economists in November, ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of December 10, 2007Investors are anxiously awaiting the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which will be released on Tuesday. In recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have backed off their earlier statements that further target rate cuts are unlikely, which has led to speculation that the target rate may be cut by half a point. The last major report before the FOMC meeting, nonfarm payrolls, was released Friday and showed moderate growth, which some economists believe will make a quarter-p ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of December 3, 2007Real gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in four years in the third quarter and core inflation remains under control, but consumers are the least confident they have been about the economy since hurricane Katrina. The decline in the housing market has not shown consistent signs of leveling off and construction spending is falling as a result. Personal spending was slightly weaker than expected, but it remains to be seen whether the retail holiday season will be disappointing as ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of November 26, 2007The shortened Thanksgiving holiday week brought negative reports that the housing market continued to weaken. On the positive side, initial unemployment claims fell. Worries about the impact of the sub-prime mortgage market spill-over into the broader economy drove stock prices lower and bond prices higher over much of the week until Black Friday when consumer gave retailers a better-than-expected showing on the day after Thanksgiving. Many investors still seem to believe that the Federal O ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of November 19, 2007We expect real GDP growth to remain below 3.0% over the next year, however, concerns about accelerating inflation are likely to keep the Federal Reserve from lowering the federal funds rate target further. A declining dollar as well as higher oil prices will likely cause inflation to increase somewhat. Although the subprime mortgage issues will cause banks to tighten their lending policies, we do not expect liquidity issues to lead to recession. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of November 12, 2007Economic reports released last week generally supported the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement that the risks of inflation and slower economic growth are roughly balanced. Third quarter productivity growth surged while unit labor costs declined and the September trade balance unexpectedly narrowed despite rising oil prices. Both reports point toward a stronger-than-expected economy in recent months, though slower growth is forecast in the coming months. Balancing these reports w ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of November 5, 2007A loaded economic calendar and a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting provided plenty of economic excitement last week. The FOMC cut the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points as the market had expected. Real GDP beat expectations by posting 3.9% growth in the third quarter, and a nonfarm payrolls gain of 166,000 was nearly double the consensus expectation. The unemployment rate held at 4.7% and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) held at 1.8%, within the 1-2% range t ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of October 28, 2007Last week was light on economic data, while this week's calendar is loaded. Investors are anxiously awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) policy statement to see whether further rate cuts will be taken. Other highly anticipated reports include advance gross domestic product for the third quarter, and October nonfarm payrolls. Last week included data indicating that the housing market continues to flounder, new orders of durable goods are showing weakness, and initial unemploym ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of October 22, 2007An otherwise positive week of economic indicators was overshadowed by continued housing market woes. September housing starts and permits both fell more than expected and are now at 14-year lows with few signs of a turnaround. The decline in starts was led by multi-unit starts, which fell 36% from August. Oil futures stole headlines as well, setting several record highs before settling at $88.60 on Friday. Oil, the housing market, and credit market concerns combined to create a flight to sa ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of October 15, 2007Last week featured generally positive economic indicators, including a better-than-expected retail sales report. The producer price index (PPI) indicates that inflation risks have not increased significantly, which supports the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision to cut the federal funds rate target in September. Minutes were released from the September FOMC meeting which indicate that members considered inflation risks to have lessened in recent months, but the minutes did not pr ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of September 17, 2007Last week's calendar was light on major economic releases and lacked a market shock such as the one created by nonfarm payroll data a week earlier. Retail sales were slightly worse than expected despite being propped up by automobile sales, which caused some minor concern in the market due to the importance of consumer spending. Consumer credit data indicated consumers borrowed significantly less in July than in June, but credit increased 12% from a year earlier. Industrial production was p ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of September 10, 2007The events during the holiday-shortened week were largely overshadowed by the first employment decline in four years. In addition to the August decline, June and July numbers were revised sharply downward. The unemployment rate remained flat due to a decrease in the labor force, and hourly earnings appeared unaffected by the employment decline. A hot topic of late has been whether the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower the federal funds rate target at its meeting later ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of September 2, 2007Despite the release of a large number of economic indicators last week, most investors were focused on words from the Fed that could hint at a federal funds rate cut in the near future. The minutes from the August 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were released early in the week and indicated that inflation was still the predominant policy concern. In a second Fed issued report, a letter from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to Senator Charles Schumer was released in which Bernanke sa ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of August 27, 2007Despite the small number of economic reports released last week, there was no shortage of news. The future outlook of the economy improved as the index of leading indicators advanced 0.4% in July and increased 0.1% from six months ago. This reading in the six-month change follows a 0.7% decline in June, only 0.3 percentage point from a level that signals recession. News in the housing market was mixed with new home sales increasing 2.8% in July; but Capital One, Lehman Brothers, and Accredi ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of August 20, 2007With a multitude of reports released last week, investors were most likely hoping that strong readings in key economic indicators would avert attention from the credit market and pull the financial markets out of the recent plunge. In the end, it took a 50 basis point cut in the discount rate, the rate at which member banks borrow funds directly from the Fed, to offset some of the large stock market losses early in the week. The Fed justified the move saying that "financial market condition ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of August 13, 2007As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate target at 5.25% at its meeting last week. According to the FOMC press release released after the meeting, "the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected." Several reports last week supported their concern of inflation only one week after a positive reading on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred gauge ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of August 6, 2007Growth in core inflation slowed to a pace within the Fed's comfort zone of 1-2% in June. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, grew at an annual pace of 1.9% in June giving the Fed some leeway to relax their restrictive monetary policy. In addition to the slower pace of inflation, the consumer confidence index rose to a six-year high because consumers felt better about the current economic situation and were more positive about the ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of July 30, 2007Reports last week showed that the U.S. economy expanded at an exceptional pace in the second quarter despite a slumping housing market. Real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at a 3.4% annual pace after only advancing 0.6% in the first quarter. The strong economic growth was coupled with slower inflation as the GDP deflator slowed from 4.2% in the first quarter to 2.7% in the second quarter. The struggling housing market has hampered growth and was illustrated in last week's reports, wi ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of July 23, 2007Reports last week were generally positive with consumer and producer prices easing and industrial production growing. Both the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) slowed in June, on a year-over-year basis, to 2.7% and 3.2% respectively because of declining food and energy prices. The core CPI, which is used as a gauge of inflation, eased to 2.2% year-over-year and is near the Fed’s comfort zone of 1-2%. Industrial production grew 0.5% in June with the manufacturing, ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of July 16, 2007Consumers cut back on spending as gas prices rose and the housing recession reduced demand for housing-related items such as building materials, appliances, and furniture. Retail sales plunged 0.9% in June and year-over-year growth slowed to 3.8%. In addition to hampering retail sales, elevated gas prices were also the main contributor to the widening trade deficit. In May, the U.S trade deficit widened $1.3 billion to $60 billion as imports increased due to an increase in domestic spending ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of July 9, 2007Reports released last week pointed toward stronger economic growth. Larger than expected employment gains in June were coupled with significant upward revisions to April and May numbers. Unemployment remains low but hourly earnings have not yet shown signs of increased pressure on labor costs despite the tight labor market. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index posted its fourth gain in five months to reach a 14-month high. The stock market gained around the mid-week holiday, spur ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of July 2, 2007A flurry of economic reports was released last week as the2nd quarter came to an end. Despite the unusual number of reports, few strayed far from expectations. The pace of inflation continued its slow downward trend as core personal consumption expenditures fell to within the Federal Reserve’s "comfort zone." Despite the deceleration, inflation risks, rather than slow economic growth, remains the primary concern and will be under close watch. In a sign that growth may soften in coming qua ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of January 7, 2007Economic reports were mixed last week but the sluggish employment growth and rise in unemployment rate provides evidence that the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has spilled into the broader economy. Although a recession is not certain, investors appear to be expecting the worse. All three major stock market indexes fell more than 4% last week and yields fell across the Treasury curve. After the employment report was released, federal funds future contracts implied a high probabil ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of June 18, 2007Equities rebounded last week after a spike in the 10-year Treasury caused the largest decline in stock prices since March two weeks ago. Last week’s gains were attributed to positive economic data, the consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales in particular. Core CPI increased less than expected, while retail sales growth helped relieve concern of an impending plunge in consumer spending. The housing market is showing no signs of improvement as foreclosures reached a new high, following ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of June 4, 2007The holiday-shortened week started slow, with most of the economic releases occurring at the end of the week. Real gross domestic product (GDP) was revised downward further than expected to just 0.6% for the first quarter. Analysts are attributing the slow growth to transient factors and expect growth rates above 2.0% for the rest of 2007. Growth in personal income also came in lower than expected in April at -0.1%. Other indicators provided more positive news, as nonfarm payroll growth pic ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of May 28, 2007The small number of economic reports released last week was mixed. In the housing market, new home sales surged 16.2% to 0.981 million units at an annualized rate (MUAR) in April while existing home sales fell 2.6% to 5.990 MUAR for the month. News in the manufacturing sector was positive with durable orders growing at a 4.1% year-over-year rate, the first positive year-over-year pace in seven months. The news in the labor market, however, was negative as initial unemployment claims increas ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of May 21, 2007Last week's economic reports showed improved current conditions in several areas of the economy, while the outlook for the future was less positive. The pace of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slowed to a 2.6% year-over-year pace in April while core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to a more moderate 2.4% year-over-year pace and inched closer to the Fed's "comfort zone." Housing starts increased to 1.528 million units at an annualized rate (MUAR) suggesting i ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of May 14, 2007Reports last week suggest that U.S. producers and consumers are feeling the effects of higher energy prices. Retail sales growth slowed to a 3.2% year-over-year pace in April while gas stations experienced the fastest growth among all sectors for the month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) advanced 0.7% in April as wholesale energy prices grew 3.4% for the month. The effect of higher oil prices was also apparent in the trade deficit which increased by $6 billion because imports of oil increas ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of May 7, 2007Last week's reports showed that the labor market weakened, while other news in the manufacturing industry was positive. Factory orders increased 3.1% in March, and the ISM index rose 3.8 points to 54.7 in April. Nonfarm payrolls were well below expectations only adding 88,000 jobs while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5%. Worker productivity also slowed significantly to a 1.7% annualized pace in the first quarter compared to 2.1% in the prior quarter. With slower growth in the labor mar ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of April 30, 2007The economy continued to expand in the first quarter of 2007, although at a much slower pace than in previous quarters. In the first quarter of 2007, real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at a 1.3% annualized rate (advance figure), down from 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2006. As the economy continues to slow, consumer confidence has diminished as well. In April, the consumer confidence index fell 3.9% to 104 as consumers became uneasy of the present situation as well as what li ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of April 23, 2007Consumer prices increased in March, as oil prices continue an upward trend. The consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.8% from a year ago, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) advanced a more comfortable 2.5% over the past year. Despite increasing prices, retail sales advanced a notable 0.7% for the month. The housing market also improved as both housing starts and building permits rose 0.8%. Industrial activity contracted according to last week's report with industry production falling 0. ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
Week of April 16, 2007Last week's reports showed the effects of rising energy prices. In March, the producer price index (PPI) advanced 1.0%, as both food and energy prices increased for the month. Meanwhile, the core PPI (excluding food and energy) was unchanged in March. A lower price and volume of crude oil imports led to a slight decline in the trade deficit in February, but petroleum import prices jumped 9.0% in March. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains concerned about inflation, according ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | |
