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Recession’s Impact Varies by Industry - November 18, 2009A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal. Which industries are expected to fare best and worst over the near-term horizon?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Americans are Saving Again - November 4, 2009Believe it or not, US consumers have pulled off a dramatic U-turn. Addicted to debt in the boom years, the world’s biggest consumers are pinching their pennies at a rate few thought possible just a year ago. This deleveraging process is weighing on the economy now, but paving a path to recovery.Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Path to Recovery Challenging for Canada's Regions - November 11, 2009This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less. Canada’s recession was indeed an imported one, and the decline in activity is so dramatic that no single province but the smallest has escaped its effects. Even so, there are differences in each province’s experience, and in the outlook for 2010.Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Race to Recovery - October 28, 2009Once again, the ‘R’ word is everywhere – although this time, it’s not recession, but recovery. Positive signals in the economy are mounting, setting off lots of ‘recovery buzz’. Trouble is, the growth that we are seeing still leaves us well below pre-recession activity levels. Clearly there is a big difference between the return of growth and the onset of true recovery. The race to recovery is on, but we still have big hurdles to clear before we’ll have a solid fix on the fini ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website 10 Reasons to Reject Protectionism - October 21, 2009Decades of multilateral effort and untold resources have been devoted to freeing up global trade flows. Enter a severe recession, and suddenly all that effort is at risk. Protectionism, the arch enemy of international trade, is in vogue again. There are at least 10 reasons to spurn the movement.Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Global Recession Tests Mexico’s Mettle - October 14, 2009Globalization revolutionized world commerce in the 1990s, and Mexico joined the movement with gusto. This decision paid dividends to the Mexican economy for over a decade. But greater openness has increase Mexico’s exposure to the world recession, the most serious test globalisation has faced to date. Is Mexico coping, and more importantly, will its new openness survive the downturn?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Land of the Rising Yen - October 07, 2009If the past 18 years were like a bad dream for Japan’s economy, the past 15 months have been a nightmare. But second-quarter stats show that the Japanese economy jumped by 2.3%, outshining the rest of the G-7 economies by a wide margin. Is the world’s number two economy on the mend?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website How Do You Spend $586 billion? - September 30, 2009Crisis brought on a torrent of public stimulus announcements last year. Plans are being implemented, and the impact on growth is huge. But in the rush to declare the recession over, there is also concern that stimulus not be withdrawn too quickly. Good advice, given the math of stimulus spending.Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Bright Future for Panama - September 23, 2009Trade hubs the world over have been pummelled by the global recession. World trade flows are forecast to fall 12% this year, many times the drop in global GDP. One wouldn’t expect this context to be very kind to Panama. But the country whose tiny size is its greatest asset is holding its own.
Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Dollar Daze – Round 2 - September 16, 2009It’s the wrong time of year for the elusive loon to be flying north. But the one on the dollar coin is doing just that, as concerned exporters and economy-watchers look on. Unlike its mid-summer ascent, the current move to US 92¢ seems to be sticking. If so, exporters are in for a rough ride.
Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website There’s No ‘V’ in Consensus - September 9, 2009Recovery-talk has been dominated by a discussion of letters. There’s the rapid V-, the protracted U-, the double-dip W-, and the dreaded L-shaped recovery. Recent positive economic signals have resuscitated hopes of a V-shaped rebound. Is it just hype, or do forecasters generally agree?
Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Prince Rupert: Port of the Future - September 2, 2009Panic-laced talk of capacity shortages at North America’s West Coast ports has gone silent. Hardly a surprise, given that world trade flows are expected to drop 12% this year. Suddenly, ports the world over have spare capacity, suggesting lower, or slower, near-term investment in port infrastructure. A logical initial response, but one that could resurrect problems when the world economy rebounds.
Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website It’s All About Inflation Again - August 5, 2009Kudos to everyone! Consumer prices have tumbled rapidly, and are declining in most large countries – but hardly anyone is talking deflation. That’s because prices for most items are still edging upward – declines have been largely confined to food and energy items. But worrywarts will have little down-time. There is already talk of looming inflation, and the angst is sure to rise in the next few months.Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Green Shoots and the US Housing Market - August 12, 2009Remember where the global recession all began? It’s perhaps a distant memory now, but it was early in 2006 that US housing markets first faltered, setting off successive waves of weakening. In recent days, a bevy of positive international economic indicators has hit the airwaves, and many analysts are now seeing the recession’s imminent end. Are US housing markets once again leading the way?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website What’s Up Down Under? - August 19, 2009Up is in vogue these days. It almost seems that there is pressure to unearth upbeat economic stories, and make a lot out of them. Many key economic indicators have cooperated lately, and on that score, the Australian economy has garnered a fair amount of attention. What is up Down Under?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Not Without the Consumer - August 26, 2009What makes for a true recovery? Some are counting on government stimulus. Others say it can’t happen without revived international trade. Still others say it’s about prices, or a confidence thing. These elements help, but ultimately a true recovery has to be about consumption. It dominates the other elements of GDP, and in many ways, drives them. So, how are the world’s consumers faring?
Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Unnatural Gas Prices? - July 22, 2009The world’s best roller coasters are hard pressed to match the recent gyrations in natural gas prices. From last year’s extraordinary heights, prices plunged 42% in one month, swifter than for most commodities, and a huge surprise to many analysts. Do recent price movements make sense?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Brasilience - July 29, 2009Resilience is not a word that has been used to describe much of Brazil’s post-war economic experience – but it’s creeping into current vocabulary. In past economic cycles, Brazilian volatility was legendary, and its effects on the economy, severe. Today’s experience seems to be a lot different. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website In the Valley - July 8, 2009Like it or not, that’s where the world economy is at present. Six months of freefall down a pretty sheer cliff, and everyone’s still a bit dazed, wondering if this is a V-, a U- or an unusually W-shaped valley. Spirits rose when the freefall ended, but that seems to be giving way to the realization that the trek out of the valley will be prolonged and hazardous. What is the near-term outlook for the economy?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Western Europe: Leader or Laggard? - July 15, 2009A year ago, Europe was being touted as the resilient zone. Inflation was the big worry, not recession. Interest rates were hiked 25 basis points on July 9th, 2008. But the zone’s analysts were wrong. Along with the rest of the world, Europe tumbled. Brighter signs have emerged recently, enough to prompt calls for a scaling-back of government stimulus. Is Europe poised to lead the world back to growth?Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website
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