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Losing our Cool in the Summer? - August 11, 2011 Predictability is a long-sought but elusive state in the modern economy. It seems particularly elusive at the moment. Unusual uncertainty and volatility are delaying the global economy’s healing process. We all have some tolerance for turbulence, but at a certain point even the strongest stomachs start to churn – and at that point, the resulting rush for a remedy can wreak havoc with the economy. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Austerity Verity - August 4, 2011 When it comes to frequency of word usage in the media, 'slowdown' is way up in the rankings. For a world economy that has been in the yo-yo zone since early 2009, that might be a ho-hum insight. Yet the OECD sees a widespread, multi-country slowdown occurring in a context of elevated risk. Is this just more pre-recovery turbulence, or is there more to the current soft performance? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Shipping Caught in Price Doldrums - July 28, 2011 There’s a lot of talk about inflation these days. Too much, perhaps. But there’s at least one place that prices don’t seem to be flexing their muscles: ocean freight rates. That might make some sense from a global demand perspective, but not when sky-high fuel prices are considered. What’s going on? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Inflation in the EU: Really? - July 21, 2011 A galloping charger needs restraints. Not so the placid horse. Which one characterizes current EU inflation? The ECB sees the former, and has seen fit to grasp the reins more tightly, raising key interest rates for the second time in three months. Analysts are divided, and the stakes are high. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Summer Setback - July 14, 2011 Two steps forward, one step back. That seems to be the current cadence of the world economy. While it suggests progress, it is frustrating. The momentum that was clearly building over the past year has recently downshifted. Is this the best the global economy can do, or are better times ahead? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website US: Poised for a Big Comeback? - July 07, 2011 Worried about the US economy? You’re not alone. US equity markets fell for six weeks in a row as nervous investors piled into US treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down to 2.8%, the lowest level since November. Key indicators from various sectors of the economy have swooned. Is this just more evidence of a capricious market, or is this chapter 1 of the US version of Japan’s ‘lost decade’? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Surprise Rise in Trade Confidence - June 30, 2011 It’s a tough time to gauge business sentiment. During the spring, news of natural disasters, political turmoil and the sorry state of public finances contrasted with signs of growing economic momentum. Perhaps this is why a prominent survey of Canadian SMEs made waves last week, simultaneously signalling both larger hiring intentions and plunging confidence. Are Canadian exporters as gloomy? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Economic Models: In a Funk - June 23, 2011 If market volatility gives economic models a headache, then they have a whopping migraine at the moment. Critically dependent on past trends, models are now having to absorb the mega-changes of the last growth cycle, and so far, their record is sketchy. What are these model-rocking changes? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website That’s A Good Question! - June 16, 2011 Our cross-Canada Let’s Talk Exports forecast presentations are usually followed by lively question-and-answer sessions. Without this interaction, we would not get a true sense of the concerns, the fears and the aspirations of Canada’s exporters. I’m happy to report that this year was no exception, and the following is a synopsis of the questions uppermost in the minds of our audiences this spring. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Loonie at Par: Loony? - June 9, 2011 Our spring Let’s Talk Exports roadshow wrapped up last week. Over the 15-city tour, one key concern was expressed without fail: the soaring Canadian dollar. Above par since January, the Northern buck has many believing it is stuck there. Has parity now become permanent, or is some relief on the way? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website MENA Dilemma - June 2, 2011 If shocks are the bane of forecasts, this year we are doubly cursed. Thus far, the world has been wracked by multiple natural disasters. Equally unpredictable was the unrest that gripped the Middle East and North Afric (MENA), and it has likewise shaken confidence. If seemingly bullet-proof regimes fell so swiftly, can we predict with any confidence future fallout in the region – and the world? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Decoupling: Yes and No - May 26, 2011 Prior to the global financial and economic meltdown, observers were heralding news that the world was decoupling. As the last growth cycle peaked, many market watchers saw divergent growth as a sign that the world was moving away from a single economic growth engine. Indeed, emerging market growth was roaring ahead, and even Europe seemed to be diverging from US growth trends. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Diversification Dividend - May 19, 2011 As the next growth cycle approaches, Canada faces a daunting list of challenges. An aging population. Unfunded pension liabilities. Ballooning health care costs. The sustainability of public finances. Poor productivity growth. A lack of innovation. An irrepressible currency. High consumer debt loads. The list goes on. When world growth revives, will we join in or get left behind? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Countdown to Launch Underway - May 12, 2011 Scan any serious recent report on global economic woes, and housing markets figure prominently. They illustrate both the consumer and financial excesses of the last growth cycle. They are an equally apt illustrator of sluggish post-recession growth. But housing is a tiny fraction of GDP. And in a highly globalized world, residential construction is still one of the most domestically-oriented industries. Should an outward-looking world really care about this relatively small segment of the e ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Housing is Foundational - May 5, 2011 Scan any serious recent report on global economic woes, and housing markets figure prominently. They illustrate both the consumer and financial excesses of the last growth cycle. They are an equally apt illustrator of sluggish post-recession growth. But housing is a tiny fraction of GDP. And in a highly globalized world, residential construction is still one of the most domestically-oriented industries. Should an outward-looking world really care about this relatively small segment of the e ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website US Debt Outlook: A Warning in the Warning - April 28, 2011 Just when we thought we had enough shocks to deal with, Standard and Poor's published a negative outlook on the US sovereign rating. The market reaction was swift: the Dow Jones Industrial average immediately shed 140 points, or 1.1%, amid a bevy of alarming media stories. But US bond yields hardly budged, and within 24 hours were back comfortably below the levels seen prior to the agency’s warning. Is the bond market really blasé, or is there danger of a more severe reaction ahead? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Still in Synch? More or Less - April 21, 2011 Losing 20% of anything you value is not fun. Whether it’s crops, staff members in your company, life savings or lunch money, the loss hurts. Recession stung the world by carving more than 20% from global exports. But after a two-year climb, export activity finally closed that gap in December 2010. Are all regions sharing in the rebound, or has it created clear winners and losers? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Surprise South of the Border? - April 14, 2011 It’s an economic adage well known to Canadians: the US sneezes, and we catch pneumonia. We don’t suffer alone – this delicate constitution also afflicts the only other nation to share a long stretch of US border. It’s only natural to expect that Mexico was ravaged by the US-led recession, and that it has shared the frustrating convalescence that followed. How is the Mexican economy doing? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website A Shock Felt Around the World - April 7, 2011 Like that famous shot that preceded the Great War, the shock that devastated north-eastern Japan on March 11 has a global reach. As Japan struggles to cope in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami, the impacts of the catastrophe on the highly-integrated global economy are beginning to sink in. Is the world economy resilient enough to overcome the consequences of the shock? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website BRIC to BRICS - March 31, 2011 Getting in to the country club is a mark of success, a coming of age. Among countries, country clubs have the same appeal. Until 2008, the big one to get into was the G-7. Nowadays, the brass plate on the front door of the coveted club reads ‘BRIC’. And it seems poised to take on a new member. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Construction: Rebalancing Act - March 24, 2011 The construction industry is not for the faint of heart. It experiences the great heights of an economic boom, and the deep chasms of recession. Every downturn takes many casualties, and it takes a lot of strength to survive. The current economic cycle is again testing the industry’s nerves. The downturn has been particularly long – will recovery come soon enough to keep today’s survivors going? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Trade Numbers Disconcerting - March 17, 2011 The world economy received its latest checkup last week with the release of a bevy of international trade data. Hopes were high that the numbers would yield further evidence of rising global economic momentum. Instead, the results were mixed – not what anyone wants to hear at checkup time. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Profits at Odds With the Dollar? - March 10, 2011 Nerves are getting raw – again. Just as Canada’s domestic sector is getting ready to hand the torch over to exporters, the dollar has moved decisively beyond the parity mark. The current climb is building on a recent up-trend that began in mid-2010. You might expect to see the effects in Canada’s corporate profits data, but the most recent numbers look strong. Is there a simple explanation? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Innovation is Critical - March 3, 2011 It’s a really bad day. You’re half a world away and web access in your hotel is down indefinitely. You left your air card on the plane, and there’s no internet café nearby. Getting out of your cab, the Blackberry fell into a puddle. Zap. Your IT hotline is busy. You’re staring a 7AM deadline in the face, and you are down to a word processor, a spreadsheet and an external memory device. Disaster. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Inflation Consternation - February 24, 2011 Looking for a clear message on the world economy’s current state? You may not want to start with price statistics. At present, you can find runaway inflation, stability, disinflation and deflation, depending on where you look. Can we make any sense of the mixed messages? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Beginning of a Weak Spell for Japan? - February 17, 2011 Global economic momentum is on the rise. Improvement in the US outlook is one of the key reasons. But not all countries are benefiting. Japan, which recently lost its ‘number 2’ status to China, appears to be faltering. Is this just a temporary blip, or a signal of something deeper? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Europe’s Test Affects the Rest - February 10, 2011 Amid the hoopla of monetary union in 1999, certain Eurosceptics warned that the Zone would not survive its first recession. But even they didn’t dream at the time that the first recession would be the worst in over 60 years. It is taking its toll, with countries on the periphery of the Union testing the limits of the fraternal bond. Fiscal weakness in peripheral nations is not just the greatest test for Europe, but for a fledgling world economy eager to launch into the next growth cycle. ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Household Debt Clock is Ticking - February 3, 2011 Prodigal. Imprudent. Profligate. Adjectives like this have been used liberally in recent years to portray the unfettered, debt-financed spending habits of American consumers. At the same time, much more flattering language has been used to describe Canada’s exemplary financial system, well-managed fiscal policy and stable domestic growth. The wording has taken on a worried tone. Recent domestic growth was aided by a considerable run-up in personal debt. Is the nascent concern warranted? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Reprieve from the Relapse - January 27, 2011 Need a refresher on the world economy’s recent travels? Canadian exports tell the story: ravaged by the global recession, rescued by a rapid rebound, and now repressed by a relapse that has fogged up the view of the future. In contrast, Canada’s domestic economy has been unusually resilient, rescuing us from the regular roughing-up global recessions usually bring. But momentum on the home front is fading. Are exports ready to pick up the slack and keep the near-term outlook afloat? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Opportunities Beyond the BRICs - January 20, 2011 Browse media reports on any given day and you’ll find a litany of stories on the BRIC countries, and with good reason. Their growth record is stunning, and they have strong future potential. They each possess huge internal markets that give new meaning to the word ‘scale’. Their economic rise is increasing their influence in world affairs at the same time as established powers are grappling with diminished growth potential. It’s hardly surprising that the world is eager to harness t ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exporters: Cautiously Optimistic - January 13, 2011 It’s good to enter a new year with a healthy dose of optimism. This is no small task for Canadian exporters, who saw robust growth in the first half of 2010, but are now faced with the dual challenges of weakening global demand and a stubbornly high Canadian dollar. Are these challenges weighing on the Canadian exporting community, or is there optimism in spite of the obstacles? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Ready for the Real Recovery? - January 6, 2011 2010 may well become known as the year of the false start. Growth that looked every inch like true recovery fizzled by mid-year, feeding the confusion and uncertainty that is the hallmark of the recession’s aftermath. At the start of a new year, it would be nice if we could shrug off our economic troubles, and start with a clean slate. Unfortunately, we bring with us challenges aplenty. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Surprise of the Year: Price Paradox - December 23, 2010 Looking back over 2010, there was no lack of drama. The year began with a bang: news that we ended 2009 with a surge of growth combined with evidence of continuation into the New Year. Most were proclaiming recovery. But just as abruptly, the engine stalled in the second quarter as the effects of stimulus faded. Then came the successive waves of sovereign default fears. In all the turbulence, there are many possible candidates for the big surprise. Can we narrow it down to one? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website An Import-ant Source of Growth - December 16, 2010 Negative numbers in any country’s national accounts are generally bad news. They mostly show up as periodic declines in activity, and we have seen a lot of that lately. Imports always show up as a negative number, by definition, and consequently are often looked at as ‘bad’. But at the world level, one’s imports are another’s exports, and as such point to sources of demand and opportunity. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website In India’s Perennial Problem, a Solution - December 9, 2010 India’s modern-day growth path is the envy of most nations. Annual GDP has vaulted ahead by an average of 6.4% over the past 10 years, and the economy handled the global recession well. Growth this year and next is averaging 8.4%, a little over India’s own speed limit. While the West frets about double-dipping, India is trying to prevent overheating. It may get some unwanted help: key constraints already hinder the economy, and unaddressed, threaten to short-circuit India’s stellar ex ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Big Economies in a Policy Squeeze - December 2, 2010 The recent recession was shock enough, but it was at least rivalled for effect by the public policy response that followed. Overnight, Western economic policy turned on a dime. Crisis led to a swift, significant and highly synchronized global response, with governments everywhere pledging to cut rates, spend, and do ‘whatever it takes’. Suddenly, the policy world seemed a very different place. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Big Banks – Turning the Corner? - November 18, 2010 Faith in the global banking system was shattered in late 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Only extraordinary intervention by governments prevented the systemic, cascading bank failures last seen in the 1930’s. Even so, there are lingering questions about the health of banks. They are once again profitable, but are they still vulnerable to shocks? Will bank lending recover, and if so, when? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Preparing for a Rebound in European Trade - November 25, 2010 International trade has been the punching bag of the global recession. Accustomed for years to leading global growth, trade fell by 11% in 2009 as the global economy shrank 0.6%. A partial revival occurred in the 6-month growth spurt that began last fall, but renewed slowdown has analysts wondering whether this economic episode is a permanent setback for trade and the process of globalization. Is the future of international trade in doubt? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Consumer Comeback? Not Yet - November 11, 2010 Like it or not, the world’s consumers are a critical piece of the global recovery puzzle. Without a revival in this key sector, the world economy will remain in neutral. Can we expect this mighty economic engine to fire up soon, or is it more likely to continue drifting for some time to come? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Chinese Growth: Actual or Artificial? - November 4, 2010 Emerging market titans seem to be flying through economic turbulence with remarkable ease. China has continued to impress onlookers with consistent, double-digit GDP growth. Many see China as an anchor of world growth. So far, so good. But can China keep things going as world growth slows? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Moment of Truth - October 28, 2010 Chaotic movements in world economic output gave way to a new phase at mid-year. Suddenly, it seemed that everything got quiet. Far from an antidote to chaos, this is a disquieting quiet, a mid-rebound slowdown that doesn’t normally occur. It’s a shock, and many wonder why it has happened. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Perplexing Path of Prices - October 21, 2010 It’s easy to get dizzy tracing the recent path of prices. General price movements have oscillated from inflation to disinflation and back again over the past two years. Earlier this year, strong growth rekindled inflation worries in many economies, prompting much discussion about the unwinding of loose monetary conditions, and resulting in tightening actions by various monetary authorities. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Commodity Oddity - October 14, 2010 May, 2010 was just a few days old when the world economy hit a troubling inflection point. Concerns about the viability of Southern European economies combined with slowing growth to sour recovery hopes. Pundits are now proclaiming modest growth in unison, but commodity markets must have the earplugs in. Prices should be falling, but instead they are going the other way. What’s going on? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website OECD Barometer: Weather is Worsening - October 7, 2010 If increased technology has any downsides, then a prominent one would have to be information overload. When it comes to the economy, data overload can be a problem, and given current market uncertainty, it seems as if each one of the multitude of indicators is examined in minute detail for the latest clue about the world economy’s movements. Many have a very similar message that is neatly summarized in the OECD leading indicator. What signal is this prescient measure sending? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Europhoria: Short-Lived? - September 30, 2010 Markets are hungry for good news, and they gobbled up the second-quarter GDP report for Europe with gusto. The numbers were indeed impressive, and birthed a torrent of econo-chatter about the possibility of an EU-led global recovery. Is this jump in growth the start of something big? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website CAC Region Preparing for Recovery - September 23, 2010 Aside from the occasional news flash, the world’s attention is not usually centred on Central America and the Caribbean (CAC). But this smaller segment of the New World still carries enormous strategic importance, and it significance for the world economy and global international trade is on the rise. Canada is currently well placed to participate in the region’s dynamism. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Trade: Canada’s Great Hope - September 16, 2010 Gloom abounds in the world economy, and with good reason. Surviving the current episode is critical, but growth eventually will recover, and hopes for longer-term prosperity will brighten. Strategies for success in the coming growth cycle are already being crafted. Is Canada well-placed to succeed? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Second-Quarter Shock in America - September 9, 2010 That famous hole in Wyoming where central bankers and other key economy-watchers convened two weekends ago was a fitting metaphor for the post factum sentiment of delegates. Or at least, the American ones. Sentiments were decidedly gloomy, noteworthy for a group that eschews herd hysterics. The mood was fed by the latest US GDP data, released just a day before the conference. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Profits: Prophet of Renewed Weakness? - September 2, 2010 Corporate profits, volatile at the best of times, are usually the punching bag of recessions. Likewise, as an economy emerges from recession, profits can yield key clues about the durability of recovery. For Canada, this profit cycle is alive and well. What is this prophet saying about near-term prospects? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Japan: Dark Clouds Obscure the Sunrise - August 26, 2010 Last week began with double-barreled news from Japan that grabbed the airwaves. The industrial giant was bumped out of second place among world economies by China. This occurred as growth in Japanese GDP slowed to a crawl in the second quarter. The world seemed shocked, but it shouldn’t have been. China’s ascendancy was as imminent and predictable as Japan’s nascent slowing. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website In Search of Growth...Elsewhere - August 19, 2010 Recent international trade statistics corroborate what is obvious in other economic indicators: growth is slowing worldwide. For the trade stats, it’s a new phenomenon, but other, forward-looking data suggest that weakness will linger through the second half of this year. Governments, worried enough about local demand, are busy implementing trade promotion policies. Are they likely to succeed? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Labourers in Hiding - August 12, 2010 Of the myriad monthly indicators that market-watchers dissect, few generate the palpitations induced by labour force data – both before and after release. It’s no surprise. Job growth is the anchor of demand, one of the key determinants of economic well-being. A convincing recovery in employment has yet to occur, increasing the angst of the monthly labour-data vigil. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website US Housing: Recovery Interrupted? - August 5, 2010 History will no doubt point to the US housing market as the hallmark of the past decade’s excesses. The heights achieved were only exceeded for drama by the spectacular and protracted plunge of the market, and the collateral damage sustained by the financial sector. Activity has been particularly weak since late 2008, and to date, there are scant signs of a reprieve. Is the carnage almost over? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Awaiting the Prudence Payback - July 29, 2010 Lambasting big-economy consumers for their excesses has become a popular recession-time sport. Chastened by the exposure of their self-engineered plight, many consumers have hunkered down, quietly working down excesses and deleveraging. Their activities are obvious in consumer spending data; this large chunk of the world economy has been a soft spot. Is the new prudence paying off? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Widespread Weakness in Core Inflation - July 22, 2010 Economic rebound, localized capacity constraints and base effects kept global inflation-chatter active in the opening months of this year. In recent weeks, there’s a kind of hush setting in on the topic. Have other issues crowded this one out, or is recent inflation performance telling a deeper story? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Second-Half Softening Tests World Economy - July 15, 2010 The pressure is rising. Slower growth is etched all over current data, dampening the bullish mood that dominated the airwaves in the first quarter. Markets are in yet another turbulent phase as we move into the post-stimulus phase of the rebound – perhaps the trickiest period in the past two years. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website US Auto Sales On Hold? - July 8, 2010 America’s obsession with vehicles was shaken by the onset of recession. Firms that were the icons of US auto production for multiple generations were suddenly on the brink of extinction. Hotly contested government bailouts bought them time, and sales rebounded handily – a great relief for Canadian auto sector exporters. But in June, US vehicle sales dipped again. Is this cause for concern? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Canada’s Day - July 1, 2010 Canada is capturing world attention on a number of fronts these days. Although better known for our diminutive, self-effacing persona, Canadians could be forgiven for taking special pride in key recent developments. These are especially welcome, given the general abundance of bad international news in the past 24 months, and are a boost to Canada ahead of the coming economic recovery. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Baltic Dry Index Tumbles - June 24, 2010 Summer has arrived in the Northern hemisphere, and those expecting a quieter pace may get more than they bargained for. As we enter the season, a growing number of key international indicators are on the wane. One of the more dramatic is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an important barometer of global trade activity. In recent days, the Index has seen an alarming freefall. What’s going on? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Domestic Strength Boosts Trade Confidence - June 17, 2010 Trade confidence is up? It hardly seems possible. Earlier this year, maybe, when a bevy of strong economic reports set the world abuzz with recovery-talk. But now, with heightened concern about Southern Europe’s public finances, worries about China’s performance, new cracks appearing in US demand, tumbling commodity prices and a stubbornly strong Canadian dollar? In this context, a rise in Canadian trade confidence seems out of place. Why the increase? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Uh-oh, China Slows - June 10, 2010 Weary of manifold dismal economic reports, solace-seekers have turned to the balm of Chinese data in the past 18 months. They haven’t been disappointed. But that may be changing. Recent stats are taking the shine off the impressive record, casting doubt on the fledgling global economic rebound. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Leading Indicator in Trouble? - June 3, 2010 Of all the indicators of Canada’s economic rebound, perhaps none is more convincing than StatCan’s Composite Leading Indicator (CLI). The Index has now risen for 11 consecutive months, at an impressive average monthly pace of 1%. In the latest survey, 8 of the 10 components increased, clearly a solid result. This indicator is on a roll, but is there a danger that it might actually roll over? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Recession and Rebound: Impact by Industry - May 27, 2010 For Canadian exporters, it was hard to hide from last year’s storm. Canada’s international sales experienced their biggest pounding in recent memory, and every industry was affected. The impact was greater for those on the leading edge of the storm. Is recovery likewise varied by industry? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Preparing for the “New Normal” - May 20, 2010 By now it is clear that the global recession is over. That means we are on our way back to normality, but there are many reasons to expect it to be a different sort of normality than many seem to expect. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Industrialized Sovereigns in Trouble - May 13, 2010 News about worsening public finances in Western Europe rocked global financial markets last week, and revealed an underlying fragility in confidence. Apparently, patience with the on-again, off-again approach of policymakers to the problem zones wore thin. Was the reaction overdone, or overdue? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is Copper’s Optimism Well-Founded? - May 6, 2010 Up is in vogue again. Many economic indicators are pointing upward, and many analysts now have a good dose of up-timism. One of those is copper, the orange metal with the innate sense of the world economy’s near term path. Recent movements in copper prices suggest that the world economy is revving up for a very strong rebound. Is copper right again, or are we witnessing a rare false start? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Critical Zone - April 29, 2010 It was the best of times. In late 2008, it turned into the worst of times. Then came abject pessimism, followed by a period of uncertainty and volatility. Sentiment was tentative as the world economy entered 2010, but the resumption of growth has lifted spirits, and prompted economy-watchers to hail the long-awaited recovery. Is this nascent rise the real thing, or does recovery still elude our grasp? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Alberta’s Other Economy - April 22, 2010 Think about Alberta, you think about oil and gas. Reserves in the feted oil sands are vast, rivalling those of Saudi Arabia. Just two years ago, widespread fear that the planet was running out of oil vaulted Alberta’s extensive and politically secure supplies to the centre of the global stage. With all the attention, it’s easy for the casual observer to forget Alberta’s other economy, and it’s potential. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website India: Will Politics Hinder Progress? - April 15, 2010 India’s economy may have enormous future potential to grow. There may even be enough money available to create the infrastructure needed to facilitate that economic potential. But does India, with its storied recent history of political fragmentation, and in some cases outright gridlock, want economic progress and prosperity enough to overcome its inhibiting political legacy? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Big Spenders Still Hesitant - April 1, 2010 In economic banter, recovery is a word that has been ahead of its time for over a year. It was dusted off following the global plunge in output last year, and has been well-used since. But the debate on the timing of a convincing global recovery remains open. What do large-economy consumers think? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Caribbean Economies: Less Fun in the Sun - March 24, 2010 Northerners are now returning from the annual Spring Break trek to southern destinations. Once again, Caribbean nations extended a traditional warm welcome to visitors, although cooler weather and a not-too-hot world economy may have kept their numbers down. Caribbean countries have felt the ill effects of the global downturn directly. Are they poised to fully harness economic recovery? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Industrial Production: 2-Speed Recovery? - March 17, 2010 Recent data have many pundits hailing emerging markets as the world economy’s new growth engine. Industrial production statistics are a key part of that argument. Do they indeed suggest that there is a 2-speed recovery underway, and that emerging markets are leading the charge? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Diversification Solution - March 10, 2010 “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Good investment advice, but easy to ignore when the return on a certain asset is particularly good. Canadian international trade faces the same dilemma. We know that more diverse trade would be a good thing, but over the years, the yield on trade with the US has been too tempting. But do we ignore trade diversification at our own peril? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Reversal of Profit Plunge Underway - March 3, 2010 Corporate profits are among the hardest-hit indicators in recessionary episodes, and unfortunately this time around the situation is no different: Canadian corporations saw profits tumble sharply for three successive quarters through mid-2009. Declines cut across a broad swath of industries, but in most sectors, growth has resumed. Does this just spell the end of declines, or a decisive U-turn? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Commercial Construction: Recovery’s Wrecking Ball? - February 24, 2010 Lagging indicators are the bane of economic recovery. They are the final waves that recessions send crashing into an economy, and depending on their timing, can wreak havoc with nascent recovery. One such indicator is commercial construction, and the substantial and sustained weakening of this key sector has market-watchers worried. Will it prove to be the recovery’s wrecking ball? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Inflation Muted Despite Surging Indexes - February 17, 2010 Latest monthly price data for OECD economies are now hitting the wires, and are sure to re-kindle inflation-chatter. Economic uncertainty has led to disparate views of near-term price movements, at the risk of confusing onlookers. Is the resumption of economic growth creating inflation pressures? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Woes in Greece Reveal Broader Fiscal Concerns - February 10, 2010 Fiscal finances the world over are feeling the deep effects of recession. Support for the ailing world economy was swift, substantial and synchronized in late 2008, creating large deficits that are now being widened as unemployment and lower business activity erode revenues. Hints of downgrades to AAA-rated countries, let alone the multitude of lesser credits, are a hot news item. In this context, it is no surprise that Greece is the latest draw for the economic paparazzi. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Sustainable Surge in US Growth? - February 3, 2010 The US economy surprised everyone in the closing months of 2009. Preliminary figures show the economy churned out impressive 5.7% annualized growth. As the US led the world into recession, it is expected to lead us out. Does the fourth-quarter, 2009 surge herald the beginning of recovery? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Back in the Black? Yes and No - January 27, 2010 There’s nothing like a little growth to pick up the spirits. Many indicators are pointing north again, and sentiment is noticeably brighter – in part, out of relief that the worst is behind us, but also reflecting a broadly-based rebirth of hope. Following a tough 2009, Canada will see the return of growth this year. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website China’s High-Wire Act - January 20, 2010 Pan across China’s recent economic statistics, and it’s hard not to be impressed. Double-digit growth is everywhere, it is adding up to a GDP tally that makes China seem virtually unscathed by the global recession. But at the same time, the Chinese economy registers as one of the top global economic risks in the World Economic Forum’s newly-minted Global Risks 2010 report. Is this worry warranted? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exporters See Better Times Ahead - January 13, 2010 One year ago, Canadian exporters were a very gloomy bunch, and with good reason. The recession everyone else was still fearing had already hit exporters hard, and things were getting worse. In fact, 2009 dealt exports their worst drubbing in recent memory – by a factor of six, no less. In this context, it is hardly surprising that exporters are now feeling much more confident about near-term prospects. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Stage Set for a Happier New Year - January 6, 2010 It was hard to be positive about short-term economic prospects at this time last year. Our New Year’s message could hardly have been more doleful, and as it happened, the message was warranted. Global activity levels are now much lower than they were in late 2008, and a true world recovery remains elusive. Are we in for more of the same this year, or can we look forward to better times? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Surprise of the Year: The Retreat of Risk - December 16, 2009 It seemed that as 2009 began, everywhere you looked there was risk. Output was plummeting. World financial markets were in disarray. Confidence was shattered. References to the Great Depression became fashionable. Markets were jolted into sobriety with the stark realization that risk appetite had for a long time been out of step with reality. Earnest recalibration of risk was underway. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Gloom in Global Shipping - December 9, 2009 As the sun begins to set on 2009, international traders are likely breathing a collective sigh of relief. Accustomed to hefty annual increases, traders are weathering a 17% drop in global volumes thus far in the year, and there are few signs of rebound. Will traders’ fortunes revive in the coming year? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Financial Market Turbulence: A Shock? - December 2, 2009 If the world economy has you feeling queasy, there’s good reason. We’re still in the heaving seas typical of the zone between recession and recovery, hoping that the next wave will be the last, and that it won’t swamp us. Dubai World’s announcement last week of suspended payments on $60 billion of debt is a huge wave we are still navigating, and the jury is still out on its lasting effects. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Indonesia: Tiger-in-Waiting - November 25, 2009 On any list of the world’s ascendant emerging economies, Indonesia would be pretty close to the top. Nestled in the planet’s hottest economic growth zone, the archipelago is blessed with natural wealth and the world’s fourth-largest population. Through membership in the G-20 and other international fora, Indonesia is gaining recognition as a global force. Politics has often restrained economic progress, but recent developments give hope that even on this front, things are looking up. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Recession’s Impact Varies by Industry - November 18, 2009 A search for Canadian exporters unaffected by the global recession would need a pretty big magnifying glass. Exports have been dented across the industrial spectrum – but the impact has been unequal. Which industries are expected to fare best and worst over the near-term horizon? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Path to Recovery Challenging for Canada's Regions - November 11, 2009 This year has already made history. As far back as the records go, Canadian exporters have not seen a worse year than 2009 – by a factor of five, no less. Canada’s recession was indeed an imported one, and the decline in activity is so dramatic that no single province but the smallest has escaped its effects. Even so, there are differences in each province’s experience, and in the outlook for 2010. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Americans are Saving Again - November 4, 2009 Believe it or not, US consumers have pulled off a dramatic U-turn. Addicted to debt in the boom years, the world’s biggest consumers are pinching their pennies at a rate few thought possible just a year ago. This deleveraging process is weighing on the economy now, but paving a path to recovery. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Race to Recovery - October 28, 2009 Once again, the ‘R’ word is everywhere – although this time, it’s not recession, but recovery. Positive signals in the economy are mounting, setting off lots of ‘recovery buzz’. Trouble is, the growth that we are seeing still leaves us well below pre-recession activity levels. Clearly there is a big difference between the return of growth and the onset of true recovery. The race to recovery is on, but we still have big hurdles to clear before we’ll have a solid fix on the fini ... Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website 10 Reasons to Reject Protectionism - October 21, 2009 Decades of multilateral effort and untold resources have been devoted to freeing up global trade flows. Enter a severe recession, and suddenly all that effort is at risk. Protectionism, the arch enemy of international trade, is in vogue again. There are at least 10 reasons to spurn the movement. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Global Recession Tests Mexico’s Mettle - October 14, 2009 Globalization revolutionized world commerce in the 1990s, and Mexico joined the movement with gusto. This decision paid dividends to the Mexican economy for over a decade. But greater openness has increase Mexico’s exposure to the world recession, the most serious test globalisation has faced to date. Is Mexico coping, and more importantly, will its new openness survive the downturn? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Land of the Rising Yen - October 07, 2009 If the past 18 years were like a bad dream for Japan’s economy, the past 15 months have been a nightmare. But second-quarter stats show that the Japanese economy jumped by 2.3%, outshining the rest of the G-7 economies by a wide margin. Is the world’s number two economy on the mend? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website How Do You Spend $586 billion? - September 30, 2009 Crisis brought on a torrent of public stimulus announcements last year. Plans are being implemented, and the impact on growth is huge. But in the rush to declare the recession over, there is also concern that stimulus not be withdrawn too quickly. Good advice, given the math of stimulus spending. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Bright Future for Panama - September 23, 2009 Trade hubs the world over have been pummelled by the global recession. World trade flows are forecast to fall 12% this year, many times the drop in global GDP. One wouldn’t expect this context to be very kind to Panama. But the country whose tiny size is its greatest asset is holding its own. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Dollar Daze – Round 2 - September 16, 2009 It’s the wrong time of year for the elusive loon to be flying north. But the one on the dollar coin is doing just that, as concerned exporters and economy-watchers look on. Unlike its mid-summer ascent, the current move to US 92¢ seems to be sticking. If so, exporters are in for a rough ride. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website There’s No ‘V’ in Consensus - September 9, 2009 Recovery-talk has been dominated by a discussion of letters. There’s the rapid V-, the protracted U-, the double-dip W-, and the dreaded L-shaped recovery. Recent positive economic signals have resuscitated hopes of a V-shaped rebound. Is it just hype, or do forecasters generally agree? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Paying For All the Stimulus - March 11, 2009 “In the long run we are all dead”. In that short quip, John Maynard Keynes famously criticised the hands-off attitude of policy-makers in the 1930s, when short-term economic stimulus was badly needed. Keynes might be proud of today’s policy-makers. But can we afford all of the stimulus? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Prince Rupert: Port of the Future - September 2, 2009 Panic-laced talk of capacity shortages at North America’s West Coast ports has gone silent. Hardly a surprise, given that world trade flows are expected to drop 12% this year. Suddenly, ports the world over have spare capacity, suggesting lower, or slower, near-term investment in port infrastructure. A logical initial response, but one that could resurrect problems when the world economy rebounds. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Not Without the Consumer - August 26, 2009 What makes for a true recovery? Some are counting on government stimulus. Others say it can’t happen without revived international trade. Still others say it’s about prices, or a confidence thing. These elements help, but ultimately a true recovery has to be about consumption. It dominates the other elements of GDP, and in many ways, drives them. So, how are the world’s consumers faring? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website What’s Up Down Under? - August 19, 2009 Up is in vogue these days. It almost seems that there is pressure to unearth upbeat economic stories, and make a lot out of them. Many key economic indicators have cooperated lately, and on that score, the Australian economy has garnered a fair amount of attention. What is up Down Under? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Green Shoots and the US Housing Market - August 12, 2009 Remember where the global recession all began? It’s perhaps a distant memory now, but it was early in 2006 that US housing markets first faltered, setting off successive waves of weakening. In recent days, a bevy of positive international economic indicators has hit the airwaves, and many analysts are now seeing the recession’s imminent end. Are US housing markets once again leading the way? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website It’s All About Inflation Again - August 5, 2009 Kudos to everyone! Consumer prices have tumbled rapidly, and are declining in most large countries – but hardly anyone is talking deflation. That’s because prices for most items are still edging upward – declines have been largely confined to food and energy items. But worrywarts will have little down-time. There is already talk of looming inflation, and the angst is sure to rise in the next few months. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Brasilience - July 29, 2009 Resilience is not a word that has been used to describe much of Brazil’s post-war economic experience – but it’s creeping into current vocabulary. In past economic cycles, Brazilian volatility was legendary, and its effects on the economy, severe. Today’s experience seems to be a lot different. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Unnatural Gas Prices? - July 22, 2009 The world’s best roller coasters are hard pressed to match the recent gyrations in natural gas prices. From last year’s extraordinary heights, prices plunged 42% in one month, swifter than for most commodities, and a huge surprise to many analysts. Do recent price movements make sense? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Western Europe: Leader or Laggard? - July 15, 2009 A year ago, Europe was being touted as the resilient zone. Inflation was the big worry, not recession. Interest rates were hiked 25 basis points on July 9th, 2008. But the zone’s analysts were wrong. Along with the rest of the world, Europe tumbled. Brighter signs have emerged recently, enough to prompt calls for a scaling-back of government stimulus. Is Europe poised to lead the world back to growth? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website In the Valley - July 8, 2009 Like it or not, that’s where the world economy is at present. Six months of freefall down a pretty sheer cliff, and everyone’s still a bit dazed, wondering if this is a V-, a U- or an unusually W-shaped valley. Spirits rose when the freefall ended, but that seems to be giving way to the realization that the trek out of the valley will be prolonged and hazardous. What is the near-term outlook for the economy? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Dazed by the Dollar - July 1, 2009 What’s gotten into the loonie? Months of calm were shattered in late April as the dollar soared by 12 cents in 29 days. The swift increase would be shocking at the best of times, but this run-up is hitting exporters during the worst economic episode they have likely ever seen. What’s going on? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Upsurge in Unemployment, June 24, 2009 For economy-watchers, a new month brings a rush of the latest employment figures. It hasn’t been a particularly pleasant point in the calendar lately, and there’s a lot of concern about what next month’s release will hold. With the deluge of job losses we have seen to date, is the worst now behind us? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exporters’ Abject Pessimism Fades - June 17, 2009 Last fall’s crisis of confidence sent worldwide gauges of business and consumer sentiment reeling. A growing sense that the global economy is no longer in freefall has recently increased the feel-good factor. Canadian exporters concur: the abject pessimism recorded six months ago has faded, with the Spring 2009 Trade Confidence Index posting its largest one-period gain since the post-9/11 surge. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Scuppered Projects Resurfacing - June 10, 2009 Booming commodity prices led to announcements of sizable mineral investment projects in recent years. The commodity bust saw many immediate project cancellations. Rapid evaporation of billions of dollars of anticipated spending likely contributed to the economic downturn, and to the alarming drop in business confidence. But are all of the scuppered projects on indefinite hold? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Globalization Dented, not Derailed - June 03, 2009 Globalization always rubs some people the wrong way, but this is especially the case during recessions. This one is worse than usual, because many blame globalization for the contagion that brought the U.S. financial crisis and economic downturn to their shores. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website No Industry Exempt from Global Downdraft - May 27, 2009 Canadian exporters have faced significant new-millennium challenges. The irrepressible loonie, increased global competition, a thickening border with our top customer, bottlenecks in trade infrastructure – any one of these would have been challenge enough. Even so, exporters have managed to grow their business and create key success stories, thanks to vibrant global demand. With that key element now gone, export sales have suddenly become tough for all industries. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Andean Region Holds Promise - May 20, 2009 When it comes to Canadian exports, the Andean region – Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela – is not likely top-of-mind. But Canadian exporters and investors have been very active in the region in recent years, and there is much potential for growth well into the future. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Recession a Window of Opportunity for India - May 13, 2009 In the economic heyday of the past few years, India was a paragon of prosperity in the new era of globalisation. India’s long-term potential was even thought by many to be greater than China’s. But global recession has muffled a lot of that talk. Have recent events changed India’s outlook? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Western Canada: the Bigger the Bubble… - May 06, 2009 Primary producers were ‘king of the hill’ in the boom years. Global demand seemed insatiable, market prices soared, financial capital was plenteous and ambitious projects were almost without number. Western Canada flourished in the heyday; now that it’s over, how will the West fare? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Restoring Balance - April 29, 2009 History-making. That’s likely how the current economy will be sized up when the books are written. There are few episodes in the post-war period where market drama has been as intense. And with forecasts in freefall, getting a proper fix on the economic fallout is a huge challenge. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Clues from the US Leading Indicator - April 15, 2009 'Up' has crept back into US economy-talk in recent days. A quick rally in equity markets, modest commodity-price gains and what seems like a bottoming-out of certain key US economic signals have together fuelled hopes of impending rebound. But what are the leading indicators saying? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is China Reviving? - April 22, 2009 Recent signals from the Chinese economy have been mixed. Troubling developments in the second half of 2008 sparked fears of further fallout. But these have given way to a bevy of upbeat data in recent weeks, and with it, a more optimistic tone. Is China on the mend? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Good News Beyond the First Quarter? - April 8, 2009 Decoupling was a popular term a year ago, used to describe how the rest of the world had unhitched from the US economic problem. It is now rich fodder for late-show humour. The acutely synchronized recoil that output saw in late 2008 has erased decoupling from the vernacular, and sent global forecasts tumbling. To make matters worse, this is no one-quarter wonder. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Poison of Protectionism - April 1, 2009 “Never waste a good crisis”. This has recently become the mantra of key policymakers, who are seizing the moment to enact good legislation. Sadly, the crisis has also dredged up discussion of policies that, if applied, would cause great harm. Protectionism is close to the top of that list. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is US Housing on the Mend? - March 25, 2009 Three cheers! US housing starts rose 22% in February, the first monthly increase since June, 2008. In a market hungry for good news, this was well-received, fuelling hopes that the industry where the global recession began is finally bottoming out. Is this leading sector on the mend? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Sub-Saharan Setback - March 18, 2009 The woes of the West and key emerging markets are, for the most part, eclipsing the stories of other key regions. If the slowdown is truly global, how is Sub-Saharan Africa faring? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Canadian Trade Tumbles - March 4, 2009 For world GDP, the fourth quarter of 2008 was ugly. Canada was no exception, as our economy fell into recession, shrinking by an annualized 3.4% in the quarter. But Canada suffered a lot less than most other large economies – strange, given our greater dependence on international trade. Has our resilient domestic economy helped us to sidestep the worst of the global gloom? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website GCC Remains Resilient - February 25, 2009 Spreading global weakness is casting doubt on the forecasts for global economic hot spots. Gulf Cooperation Council countries defied description in the boom years, but recently, news out of the region has soured. Has the regional bubble burst, or is the zone still a hothouse of activity? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is the Inventory Cycle Dead? - February 18, 2009 One clear indication of impending recession is the number of economy-watchers saying “It’s different this time”. Fooled again – so far, the global economy’s woes look pretty similar to past recessions, only moreso. But the phrase hasn’t been dropped completely. With all the recent innovations in inventory management, many are wondering if the inventory cycle is dead. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Get Used to Job Losses, For Now - February 11, 2009 A year ago, pressures on the global labour supply were intensifying. The boom years were a job machine, driving global unemployment rates down to generational lows. Recession has turned the tide, and huge layoffs announcements are now a daily ritual. Last Friday’s job losses in Canada and the US were a shocker. How much more of this are we likely to see? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Deflation Debate: Myth and Reality - February 04, 2009 Concern about deflation is gathering momentum. The dreaded ‘d’ word surfaced last fall, and is now a regular in business news. It has even crept into emerging market analysis, unimaginable just weeks ago. Are we really on a deflation precipice, or is this just headline-grabbing alarmism? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Are Trade’s Bellwethers Well? - January 28, 2009 All pundits now agree that we’re in a global recession. But views on the depth of the economy’s dive remain divided. The IMF has yet again lowered its global growth forecast for 2009, this time to a paper-thin 0.5%. Others are bound to follow. Conditions are bad, but are they really that bad? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Don’t Disregard Demography - January 21, 2009 Concerns about the current path of the world economy have analysts and strategists transfixed on the latest monthly data releases, and with just cause. Talk about our demographic challenge has all but ceased. It may not be our first worry, but we take our eyes off this issue at our peril. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Trade Confidence Falls to Record Low - January 14, 2009 Confidence tumbled last fall on a number of fronts. Market turbulence, rising retail prices and economic weakening pummelled consumer and business confidence. Canadian exporters, on the front lines of the global slowdown, were big contributors to the growing sense of gloom. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website When the seven years of plenty came to an end… - January 07, 2009 Few believe that the standard New Year greeting applies to things economic. The shellshock of last fall’s seismic financial and economic shifts has worn off, and turned into abject pessimism about the near-term future. Bleak stuff to start the year with. What should we be prepared for? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Policy Rates Tumble - December 10, 2008 Still not convinced there’s a serious global economic slowdown in the works? Look no further than actions by key central banks in the last few days. By any measure, interest rate reductions were huge, a needed boost to the economy. But they also suggest more bad news to come. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Construction gets a near-term boost - December 03, 2008 Recent pessimism has created a �flat is the new up� mentality in the economy. With the wrecking ball of recession battering the world economy, talk of growth has all but disappeared, and its mention seems to generate either wistful thinking or a cynical smirk. Even so, growth opportunities do exist in an unlikely sector: non-residential construction. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Speed of recent change breathtaking - November 26, 2008 The adage �one month does not a trend make� was shattered in October. The speed of change in key economic indicators was breathtaking, and wasn�t confined to single economies, industries or ideologies. Analysts� views on the economy�s near-term path, disparate just weeks ago, now vary only on the severity of the downturn. The dust kicked up by the rapid change and resulting post-October volatility has clouded the economic line of sight significantly. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Where will the credit crunch end? - November 19, 2008 There have been many predictions about where the credit crunch would end, all of which have proven to be overly optimistic. Today, the honest answers range from "It depends" to "I don't know". Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website China�s Imported Downturn - November 12, 2008 Just when we thought we were running out of superlatives to describe it, China�s economy has hit a snag. Growth has slowed sharply, silencing all who proclaimed China�s immunity to the global slowdown mere months ago. Many inside this modern economic sensation have experienced little of the dynamics of slowdown and decline, but they soon will. This one is just beginning. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Stalwart Greenback - November 05, 2008 Up� isn�t a word that describes much in the American economy at the moment. Housing is down, the stock market is down, liquidity is down, and more recently, national output itself is down. And in a rapid reversal, even inflation is down. So why is the U.S. dollar currently on a big tear? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Weathering the Weather - October 29, 2008 Looking out the window isn�t much fun these days. It�s mighty stormy in the global economy, and every day seems a bit wilder. Getting a read on any storm is always tough at ground zero. But even the satellite scan is hard to interpret in today�s super-storm. What does the forecast call for? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Restoring Confidence is Key - October 22, 2008 News media must be ecstatic. In recent weeks, hardly a day has gone by but some major new event has hit the street. Bailouts, bankruptcies, stock market volatility and commodity prices in freefall have almost become commonplace, spurring a frenzied search for superlatives that adequately capture the unfolding story. What are we to make of the financial sector mayhem? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website New Vehicle Platforms Buffer Hard Times - October 15, 2008 In any economic slowdown, big-ticket purchases are the first target of penny-pinching consumers. Auto producers know this well, and are feeling the squeeze. Sales are down sharply in the US, by far the world�s largest auto market, raising serious questions about the industry�s prospects. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Japan�s Moment in the Sun - October 08, 2008 A few weeks ago, the prognosis for Japan�s economy was not good � most analysts were convinced the nation was already in recession. But investors have swiftly turned bullish on the economy, and the yen has surged by 6% in the past few days. Is Japan suddenly a good bet? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is copper feeling a bit green these days? - August 13, 2008 Metals making the headlines at the moment are bronze, silver and gold. As awards, these metals are a standout. But none of them did particularly well in economics class. That honour goes to copper, the metal that didn�t just excel, but earned a PhD. Over the years, it has tracked movements in the global economy well. What is it telling us now? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is China set for a post-Olympic pause? - August 6, 2008 With just a day to go, all eyes are on Beijing as the world anticipates the 29th modern Olympiad. Excitement over these Games has steadily built, and meticulous preparations mark a thrilling coming of age for the Chinese economy. Billions have been spent on the event, prompting some to predict a post-party recoil. Are these just party poopers, or does the view have some merit? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Forecasters are sharpening their pencils - July 30, 2008 It is the forecaster�s prerogative to revise the outlook. And whether it�s the weather, a flight arrival or the economy, the closer we are to the event, the clearer the forecast becomes. Recent turmoil has prompted sizable changes to the near-term economic outlook. What are pundits now saying? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Has the Celtic tiger been tamed? - July 23, 2008 The Irish renaissance is one of the most dramatic economic transformations of our time. Growth has been on an uninterrupted tear for over two decades, making Ireland the envy of Western economies. But things have recently taken a dramatic turn for the worse. Is this a fleeting development, or is the Celtic tiger in serious trouble? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exporter jitters deepen - July 16, 2008 For most Canadian exporters, 2008 will be a year of red ink. Few exporting industries are exempt from the recession currently hitting the trade sector, which is weighing heavily on overall economic growth this year. Getting out of this predicament depends on a lot of factors, not the least of which is the fear factor. How are Canadian exporters feeling about their prospects? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Housing not just a US problem - July 9, 2008 Almost two years old and counting, the US housing market crash is still grabbing headlines. It�s no wonder, given the dramatic plunge, its secondary effects and scant signs of recovery. But the US isn�t alone anymore. Housing markets are now faltering in other key economies. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Who�s bucking Canada�s export recession? - July 2, 2008 Open any Canadian newspaper these days, and you are likely to hear about layoffs, shutdowns, and other gloomy pronouncements among Canada�s exporters. Energy exporters and parts of the agri-food sector are largely exempt from this talk. Most other industries are struggling, thanks to slower demand and a high currency. But some in these stressed sectors are bucking the trend. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Plenty of incentive to speculate - June 25, 2008 One of the marvels of recent economic developments is the surge in commodity prices. It wasn�t anticipated, but it has persisted, and the debate about its causes rages on. Two key views have emerged: on one side, those who feel it�s mostly about supply and demand fundamentals, and on the other, those who see a heavy speculative element. Does the latter side have a point? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website It's Been A Pleasure - June 18, 2008 It's been seven and a half years since I began writing these weekly commentaries. That's a lot of articles. A perusal of the archives serves as a nice reminder of the wide range of issues that have preoccupied us in these volatile times. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Diversification Dividend - October 01, 2008 Everybody knows that Canada is a trading nation. Compare the share of trade to total economic output, and Canada ranks close to the top among large industrialized economies. But take away trade with our number one customer, the U.S. economy, and we�re not much of a trading nation at all. In fact, we are really a North American economy, with a limited stake in the rest of the world. What would Canadian trade activity look like if we were truly a diversified trading nation? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website South Africa � No Decoupling Here - September 24, 2008 It wasn't supposed to be this way. Sure, by mid-2007 everyone was expecting the U.S. economy to slow. But commodity producers like South Africa were supposed to be immune - the so-called "decoupling" hypothesis. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Plugging-In to Private Sector Power - September 17, 2008 Energy security led the agenda at last week's XVIII Economic Forum of Central Europe, held in Krynica, Poland. Interest in the topic is not new, but the rise in energy costs over the past year has injected a new sense of urgency into the dialogue. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Sharing Brazil�s Success - September 10, 2008 No discussion of the world�s potential economic powerhouses is complete without mention of Brazil. Recent exciting changes are enabling Brazil to harness that potential more effectively, and the world�s economies are lining up for a piece of the action. Is Canada among the eager suitors? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Inflation�s Great Disappearing Act - August 27, 2008 It�s the last thing anyone would expect when we�re all bracing for slowdown. But surging food and energy prices put inflation high on the list of economic worries earlier this year. World prices for food and energy have since slipped back, but inflation fears remain. Will those fears dissipate? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Weakness from within in South Korea - August 20, 2008 The story is getting all too familiar: yet another economy joining the ranks of those succumbing to the slowdown that began in the large economies. Scoping the reach of the slowdown has turned a lot of attention to bellwether trading economies in the Asia-Pacific zone. In this context, recent softening in South Korea shouldn�t be surprising � is it just a rerun of the unfolding global story? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Will the new stagflation persist? - June 11, 2008 Central banks around the world have shifted their collective focus in recent weeks. Those who have been most aggressive in lowering interest rates have gone on hold. Those more hesitant to ease in the first place have tightened their rhetoric. At the core of these moves is a renewed concern about inflation pressures. But if the global economy is slowing, why the inflation fears? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Southern Cone�s New Deficit - June 4, 2008 At roughly 5% annually, world GDP growth from 2004-07 was well above its speed limit. This put a lot of pressure on the planet�s resources, and tested the limits of existing infrastructure � particularly in emerging markets. The Southern Cone is no exception, facing critical constraints in energy infrastructure. Will the region�s growing energy deficit constrict near-term growth? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Gloom is Growing, and Going Global - May 28, 2008 There hasn�t been much in economic news to brighten the spirits recently. Losses due to the sub-prime crisis continue to mount, soaring commodity prices are biting into disposable income, and economic data shout that world production is slowing. In a little under a year, general economic sentiment has swiftly changed from sanguine to sour. How bad has the mood shift been? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Prairie exports buck the trend - May 21, 2008 Canada�s exports are in recession this year, putting a tight squeeze on the economy. But not all exporters are sharing the pain. While many are seeing double-digit declines in orders, certain others can barely keep up with demand. These contrasts have a strong regional slant that has led to a quick role reversal, turning �have� provinces into have-not�s, and vice versa. Will it last? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Remembering the Victorian Depression - May 14, 2008 The credit crunch is now in its ninth month, prompting some to ask whether the U.S. could enter a period of Japanese-style deflation or another 1930�s-style depression as a consequence. The general feeling is that an astute and fast-acting Federal Reserve can prevent such an outcome. Nevertheless, it is worth thinking about past episodes for insights into the current situation. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Rainy Day Savings Darken US Outlook - May 07, 2008 The sun has shone steadily on the US economy for well over a decade � long enough that many forgot about rainy days. And with the memory lapse, saving for a rainy day became a long-lost practice. But the rain has begun to fall, and a prolonged wet spell is forecast. With savings rates perilously low, US consumers may suddenly get frugal. The consequences would be grim. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Two-Speed Global Economy Explains a Lot - April 30, 2008 The world economy today is a study in contrasts � slow growth here, overly rapid growth there, inflation pressures and rising interest rates in some quarters and central banks slashing rates in others. This duality is clear within some countries, too, including Canada, and explains a lot. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Now what? - April 23, 2008 Markets have been in denial for awhile, but no more � the global slowdown has arrived. The successive releases of new and gloomier data, and new revelations of excessive spending and investment, and the like, are all the stuff of downturn economics. The mood has rapidly changed from whether, to when and how deep the slowdown will be. Everyone is asking, �Now what?� Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website NAFTA�s Auto Sector Evolving - April 16, 2008 The auto sector has traditionally been front and centre when it comes to understanding Canadian export performance. But recent trends have taken the sector down a notch in relative importance, and the outlook for 2008 is for more of the same. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exporters Seeking More Risk Management - April 9, 2008 Canadian exports rose by an unimpressive 1.4% in 2007. Even so, with the Canadian dollar riding high and the slowdown that emerged in the U.S. economy, it could have been worse. In the circumstances, exporters tapped into EDC's services like never before. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Japan on shaky ground - April 2, 2008 The Japanese economy is at it again. Economy-watchers expected a poor showing in the final quarter of 2007, but in a repeat of the fall 2006 experience, the economy surprised on the upside, and by a large margin. Is Japan sidestepping the slowing in the rest of the world? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exploring America�s Export Success - March 26, 2008 The Canadian and U.S. economies are both slowing, but under the surface they could not be more different. Canada is seeing weak exports and strong domestic demand, whereas the U.S. economy is seeing weak domestic demand and strong exports. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Putting China�s Kitty in Perspective - March 19, 2008 There is continuing angst around China�s vast accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. What will they do with all that money, buy the crown jewels? Switch into euros? No one really knows. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Someone tell commodities there�s a slowdown going on - March 12, 2008 The marketplace is fast realizing that a global economic slowdown is in the works. Everyone seems to be convinced � except those irrepressibly bullish commodity markets. If slowdown is here, and key markets close to recession, why are commodity prices so high? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Can profits weather the slowdown? - March 5, 2008 The profitability of Canadian companies remained strong overall at least until the end of 2007, despite concerns about the economic storm clouds gathering just south of the border. Is the situation unique, and therefore sustainable, or an accident waiting to happen? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is the Slowdown Spreading? Ask Producers - February 27, 2008 Last year, decoupling was all the rage. Sure, the US economy was going flat, but many asserted that the malaise was more or less confined within US borders. But what was loudly proclaimed mere weeks ago has now gone strangely silent. Is decoupling dead, or has it just gone dormant? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Credit Crunch Symptoms Spreading - February 20, 2008 What began as an aberration in U.S. commercial paper markets six months ago has become much more, affecting financial institutions and individuals world-wide. What will the fallout be? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Mexico Faces America�s Slump - February 13, 2008 Mexico has demonstrated its resilience through a number of global financial storms in recent years. Can that continue, with the U.S. economy teetering on the edge of recession? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Outlook According to Housing: Gloomy - February 6, 2008 Housing markets have once again proven their economic prowess. U.S. housing starts fell sharply in mid-2006, fully 18 months ahead of the softening in the broader U.S. economy � a remarkable lead on an economic slowdown that most agree is now going global. So given its foresight, is this keen sage saying anything about impending recovery? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exporters More Brave than Resilient - January 30, 2008 Canada�s exporters were hit with the perfect storm in 2007. Yet the value of exports rose by more than 2% during the year, suggesting an unexpected degree of exporter resilience. EDC�s latest exporter survey shows, however, that exporter confidence wilted in the final weeks of the year. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website How low can oil prices go? - January 23, 2008 Oil prices have broken below the psychologically-important $90 level, leading speculators who have bet heavily on $100-plus oil to consider bailing out of the market. For real consumers, in contrast, this is good news � and the question is, how much better can it get? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website U.S. Trade Imbalance Receding - January 16, 2008 Despite six years of U.S. dollar depreciation, international trade imbalances remain a major preoccupation for financial markets and policymakers alike. What is in prospect for 2008? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website The Canada-U.S. FTA: 20 Years After - January 9, 2008 Twenty years have passed since the signing of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, which went into effect 19 years ago. It�s a good time to check the report card, to see how we are doing. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Surprise of the Year: Deflation Dissipation - December 19, 2007 Each year, just before the holidays, we take a look back and recall the surprises that took place in the previous 12 months. 2007 was loaded with candidates. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Labour Shortages are Global - December 12, 2007 We hear about labour shortages a lot � there are not enough doctors, carpenters, plumbers, or skilled workers in general (except, perhaps, economists). This is becoming a global problem. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Back to the 70s: That was then, this is now - December 5, 2007 Those of us with grey hair have noticed that there are a lot of parallels between our current economic situation and that of the 1970s. But there are differences, too, and these are important enough to suggest that things will be different this time. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Poland Playing the Investment Game Well - November 28, 2007 For any country to win its fair share of global investment has always been difficult. Poland has been doing well at the investment game, but the competition is about to get a lot tougher. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website A Kingdom Rich in Opportunity - November 21, 2007 A visit to Boomtown, Saudi Arabia incites awe, while at the same time helping to dispel certain fears. Although the place is not without problems, opportunities abound. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Bubble, Bubble, Oil in Trouble? - November 14, 2007 Black gold is on a tear again. Oil prices are currently within a hair of the psychologically-sensitive $100 mark, and the trajectory is steep. This is perhaps good news for the oil patch, but given oil�s effect on the Canadian dollar, many are worried. Will the price spike last? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Canada�s Two-Track Economy to Persist - November 7, 2007 High and rising prices for metals, oil and food have put the global economy on two independent growth tracks. The adjustments this is fostering can be painful, and there is no let-up in sight. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exporter Situation to Worsen Before Improving - October 31, 2007 Canada�s overall export performance is forecast to remain lacklustre in 2008. And there will continue to be a wide range of experience across specific export markets and particular sectors. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Global Forex Flows Titanic - October 24, 2007 Many think of central banks as powerful institutions, able to use their capital to defend their currencies against the uncertain ebbs and flows of the marketplace. But a recent survey by the Bank for International Settlements gives a better idea of what central banks are up against. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website How American Companies Dealt with an Overvalued Dollar - October 17, 2007 Exchange rate forecasts are generally built on a model of economic fundamentals. However, exchange rates have been known to stray from their fundamentals for long periods of time, so companies need an adjustment strategy even if they believe the currency will eventually ease. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is loonie strength due merely to eagle weakness? - October 10, 2007 With the Canadian loonie flying alongside the American eagle, it is easy to forget that just 200 days ago the former was cruising 15 cents below the latter. How, exactly, did we get here? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Will the South be resilient to Northern turmoil? - October 3, 2007 A recent visit to Argentina and Chile reveals a singular preoccupation in the region. Specifically, local business people are watching the financial market turmoil associated with America�s sub-prime mortgage market, and wondering what implications it will have for them. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website China Still Struggling to Contain Inflation - September 26, 2007 Just two months ago, central banks around the world were almost unanimously fixated on budding inflation pressures. Financial market turmoil in August changed the tune overnight, and economic slowdown is now the big worry. Except in China. The unstoppable economy is still facing capacity constraints, and price movements are illustrating the strain. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Wood Producers Caught In a Vise - September 19, 2007 At the heart of the slowdown emerging in the U.S. economy is an outright recession in the housing sector. Although many companies, both in Canada and abroad, will feel the effects of this, none are more directly impacted than Canada's wood product manufacturers. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website American Consumer Psychology - September 12, 2007 The world economic outlook appears to be especially uncertain at the moment, as evidenced by increased financial volatility as investors seek new direction. And the key to the outlook is the American consumer, on whom the world economy has persistently relied. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Positive Profit Picture Hides Underlying Stresses - September 5, 2007 Although economists examine a complex array of statistics when assessing the health of an economy, nothing says more than the underlying profitability of its companies. Good profits are generally associated with secure jobs, higher investment spending and good tax revenues. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website America�s Trade Deficit: Still worrisome after all these years? - August 29, 2007 Probably the most oft-mentioned problem facing the world economy and financial markets is the U.S. trade deficit. This has been the case for the past five years, yet not much has happened. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website At least the rest of the world is strong� right? - August 22, 2007 A key source of comfort during the financial turmoil of recent weeks has been the consensus that the world economy remains strong. This is important, for it means that even if the financial contagion continues to spread, the world economy will prove resilient to the shock. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Tackling High European Labour Costs - August 15, 2007 High labour costs are a prominent feature of Europe�s economic landscape. To outsiders, generous wage, vacation and sick-leave provisions, together with a tight social safety net, are the stuff of dreams. Globalisation has put continental Europe�s labour costs under the microscope, and Germany�s collaborative response has helped it to emerge as a regional growth leader. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Beneath the Surface, Eroding Confidence - August 08, 2007 Global financial markets have witnessed a series of convulsions in recent weeks, whether in stocks, bonds or currencies. Many are describing it as a healthy correction, because some markets had risen too far, too fast � in other words, the bull run is intact, but taking a breather. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Car Production Clouding Economic Signals - August 01, 2007 Economists have at their disposal an amazing array of statistics on the economy � production, sales, shipments, exports and imports, employment, and so on. Rarely do all these statistics offer the same story, and sometimes a single development can truly cloud things. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exports to South America Booming - July 25, 2007 Canada's exports have been stuck in low gear for some time, and the strong dollar and U.S. slowdown point to more weakness ahead. But our exports to South America are booming. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Managing the Surging Wealth of Nations - July 18, 2007 Governments across the world are cashing in on recent good economic times. Sovereign wealth in a wide array of nations has ballooned over the last few years, and further growth is likely in the coming years. Managing these swollen funds is becoming a growing challenge. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Export Outlook Upgrade - July 11, 2007 Last spring, EDC Economics was forecasting no growth in Canada's exports for 2007. Recent developments are leading us to upgrade this outlook modestly. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Demystifying Political Risk - July 04, 2007 Exporters and foreign investors face a wide array of risks when doing business abroad. Political risk may be the least understood, leading some companies to ignore it altogether and take unnecessary risks, while others worry too much about it and pass on key growth opportunities. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is it really different this time? - June 27, 2007 Financial markets are priced for perfection, with each warning brushed off by investors. Should we be more worried, or is it really different this time? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Canadian Labour Market Remaking Itself - June 20, 2007 Canadian manufacturers and their employees are deeply worried about the future. There have been job losses and plant shutdowns. So, why is unemployment in Canada at a 30-year low? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Aerospace Exports Flying High, Flying Low - June 13, 2007 Canada's aerospace sector has seen it all in the past five years - boom, bust, and everything in between. Today, the sector still finds itself flying both high and low, at the same time. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Is Canada decoupling from the U.S.? - June 6, 2007 Recent figures show that the U.S. economy did a face-plant in 2007Q1, while Canada was humming. This has cemented the perception that Canada is decoupling from the U.S. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Canada's Banks Are Exporters too - May 30, 2007 Even those who have heard about the various forays into the global economy by Canadian banks tend to think of them as a domestic business. Well, think again. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Blame the Yen Carry Trade - May 23, 2007 Is your currency rising unexpectedly? Blame the yen carry trade! Can't figure out why copper prices are so volatile? Blame the yen carry trade! These days, the yen carry trade is being blamed for everything, and is popping up in everyday conversation. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Loonie's Northern Flight - May 16, 2007 Just like last year, Canada's beloved loonie has decided it is time to head north, and is surprising everyone with how far it is willing to go. The real question, though, is where will it choose to nest? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Mexican Resilience Increasing - May 9, 2007 Mexico has come a long way since the so-called Tequila crisis of 1994. Nowadays, Mexico gets caught up in global volatility just like everyone else, but is on the resilient end of the spectrum. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Something Good Going Down Under - May 2, 2007 Australia is becoming a sizeable market for Canadian exports, while being a tough competitor against Canada in third markets at the same time. Australia�s trade success warrants more study. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Adapting to the New Trade Paradigm - April 25, 2007 Change is a constant in our lives today, and adaptability is highly rewarded in business. But only rarely is a change so fundamental that it changes everything � a paradigm shift. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exports to Remain Flat for Two More Years - April 18, 2007 EDC Economics has just released its latest Global Export Forecast, and the story is a discouraging one for exporters. After a flat overall performance in 2006, exporters appear to be headed for two more years of little or no growth in total export sales. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Global Growth Speed Limit Edging Higher - April 11, 2007 Economies all have speed limits. Let an economy grow above its speed limit for any length of time, and inflation results. That�s why central banks are so preoccupied with staying within the speed limit, even though most individuals would prefer stronger growth, other things equal. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website China�s Trillion Dollar Nest Egg - April 4, 2007 China has now accumulated more than $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. Crossing this symbolic threshold has led many to underscore the destabilization potential of the situation. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Canada Losing Ground in Trade - March 28, 2007 The importance of trade to Canadian prosperity has increased a lot in the past 40 years. Since the dawn of the new millennium, though, Canada has been losing ground in the trade domain. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Venezuela�s Oil Addiction - March 21, 2007 The world is addicted to oil, as everyone knows. But there are few places with an addiction as deep, and as potentially destabilizing, as in Venezuela. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Bush's Lost Jobs - The Fuller Story - March 14, 2007 George W. Bush has been blamed for many things. But one that comes up repeatedly is the loss of 3 million manufacturing jobs, which many critics attribute to his trade policies. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Exports More Diversified in 2006 - March 7, 2007 The final numbers are now in for Canada�s trade in 2006. Many exporters will remember 2006 as a tough year, but there are some rays of sunshine between those clouds. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website How are America�s consumers holding up? - February 28, 2007 America�s consumers have been carrying the global economy on their shoulders for so long now that we have come to take them for granted. But the ground has shifted beneath their feet in the last few months, so it is worth keeping track of how they are holding up. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website Just another flash in Japan? - February 21, 2007 Recent economic news from Japan has been good, so much so that it has people talking about a renaissance and a return to strong growth. The Bank of Japan is even raising interest rates. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website City Economics - February 14, 2007 Have you ever looked at one of those satellite photos of the earth, taken during night-time? It is truly a remarkable sight, and full of economic meaning, besides. Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website India’s Infrastructure Plans: Dreams or Reality? - April 8, 2010 Explosive growth became the norm for India in the global economy’s boom years, and few pundits disagree that long run growth potential is better here than anywhere else. India’s prowess was tested in the global recession, but the subcontinent has rebounded handily. Its sights are now trained on longer term growth in an ambitious new 5-year plan. Will India achieve its high-growth objectives? Listen | Listen in your iPhone | Download | View full cache | Visit Website