Link to the Show / Show NotesThe reports released last week provide further evidence that the economy is slowing and may likely dip into recession if one is not already underway. Consumer confidence fell 11.9 points in March with the 'present situation' component falling to a four-year low and the 'expectations' component dropping to a level not experienced since the Nixon administration. Consumer spending, which makes up almost two-thirds of real gross domestic product, showed no real growth in February and slowed to a year-over-year pace of 1.7% compared with 3.2% one year prior. The core personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, advanced at a 2.0% year-over-year pace in February; and for the second straight month stayed within the bounds of the Fed's "comfort zone" of 1-2%. The expectation of further reductions in the federal funds rate target continues to adversely affect the value of the dollar, which tumbled against most counterparts and experienced the largest drop in more than two years against the euro.
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