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Bob Rice - What Are The Odds of A President Sarah Palin?

Bob Rice - What Are The Odds of A President Sarah Palin?

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DATE : Sun, 21 Sep 2008 09:04:34 -0400
Entered in Database : 2008-09-21 13:04:34
length : 7239654
Link to the Show / Show Notes

Did we get your attention? Good. This is actually a simple math problem. We were fortunate to interview Bob Rice several weeks ago regarding his excellent book, "Three Moves Ahead: What Chess Can Teach You About Business." Bob is a former partner at the prestigious international firm of Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy; and the former C.E.O. of a tech start-up. He now runs merchant bank Tangent Capital, which he founded in 2005. Bob sent us his following guest blog post from Portfolio, and Peter Clayton had to learn how he came up with some of the rather startling factoids. Quoting from Bob's article... ...let's look at everyday events that have about the same odds as soon swearing in President Palin: Kobe Bryant hitting two consecutive three-point attempts. On your next try, pulling a red M&M out of the bag. A rainy day in El Paso or San Diego. (A first-term President Palin would be twice as likely as a rainy day in Los Angeles.) That you will be delayed on two consecutive flights into Newark Airport. Escaping jail in Monopoly by rolling a double. That your birthday falls on a Wednesday. That, during a full inning of a Major League Baseball game, one of the teams hits a home run. That a hurricane hits Louisiana in any given year. Want to know how he came up with these? Stay Tuned. Our interview with Bob will air Monday! Here's an excerpt from Portfolio: Feeling Lucky? The Odds of a President Palin By Bob Rice "Unlikely" events happen every day, but we're not good at factoring them into decisions. Normally we disregard events if the odds are less than 50-50--unless the result is extreme, such as a plane crash or hitting the lotto, when we often treat it as far more probable than it really is. As a result, there's a disconnect in the current dialogue about the odds of Alaska Governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin becoming President if the Republicans win November's election. People being people, her detractors view that prospect with such alarm that they may overstate the chances of its actually happening, while her supporters tend to view it as both acceptable and unlikely. Bob Rice Biography Bob Rice Bob Rice is a successful entrepreneur and early-stage investor, former public company CEO, and long-time Wall Street veteran. He began his career at the US Department of Justice as a trial attorney, and then became a partner at the prestigious international firm of Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy. But, bitten by the entrepreneurial bug, he left his law practice to found a technology company in the mid-90s. After its purchase by a public company, he became the acquirer’s CEO when the tech bubble burst, and successfully transitioned its business model from desktop software to interactive advertising. Along the way, Bob founded the Wall Street Chess Club and co-founded the Professional Chess Association with Garry Kasparov. In those roles he ran many international chess events, created a “speedchess” series for ESPN, and produced “Maurice Ashley Teaches Chess”, an award-winning chess software program for children. Bob is an active member of the New York Angels and serves on the boards of several private technology and media companies. He is and on the faculty of Liminal Group, a New York City based executive training and management consulting firm. Disclosure: Peter Clayton, senior producer, host of Total Picture Radio, serves as producer/director for Liminal Group conferences, events and webcasts.

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