Link to the Show / Show NotesA GOP congressional spokesman says 'President Bush is not on the ballot this year.' But historical analysis of American midterms proves him wrong. President Bush is very much on the ballot this year, and his current 29% approval rating, if present trends continue, means doom for Republicans.
In this podcast, we look at 100 years of midterm history from 1906 to the President day. There are two clear trends. The President's Party almost always faces losses in midterms (only 3 exceptions in 100 years) and the Popularity of a President determines if there will be a loss and how great the loss will be.
In lower turnout midterm years, voters go to the polls knowing who represents the Presidents incumbent party and who is the opposition, and vote based on their feelings about the direction of the country. Even popular Presidents like FDR, Kennedy and Reagan have faced revolt in midterms.
No President under 50% has ever led his party to success in midterms.
Now, a cautionary note: I do not provide this information just to give everyone a good feeling. Or to raise expectations... My point is, keep focusing on Bush and ignore the GOP congress. This election is very much about Bush.
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